Robots could take over 38% of U.S. jobs within about 15 years, report says
Robots could take over 38% of U.S. jobs within about 15
years, report says
More than a third of U.S. jobs could be at “high risk” of
automation by the early 2030s, according to a report released March 24.
By Samantha Masunaga March 24, 2017 11:40 AM
More than a third of U.S. jobs could be at “high risk” of
automation by the early 2030s, a percentage that’s greater than in Britain,
Germany and Japan, according to a report released Friday.
The analysis, by accounting and consulting firm PwC,
emphasized that its estimates are based on the anticipated capabilities of
robotics and artificial intelligence, and that the pace and direction of
technological progress are “uncertain.”
It said that in the U.S., 38% of jobs could be at risk of
automation, compared with 30% in Britain, 35% in Germany and 21% in Japan.
The main reason is not that the U.S. has more jobs in
sectors that are universally ripe for automation, the report says; rather, it’s
that more U.S. jobs in certain sectors are potentially vulnerable than, say,
British jobs in the same sectors.
For example, the report says the financial and insurance
sector has much higher possibility of automation in the U.S. than in Britain.
That’s because, it says, American finance workers are less educated than
British ones.
While London finance employees work in international
markets, their U.S. counterparts focus more on the domestic retail market, and
workers “do not need to have the same educational levels,” the report said.
Jobs that require less education are at higher potential risk of automation,
according to the report.
Other industries that could be at high risk include
hospitality and food service and transportation and storage.
Analysts have said truck driving probably will be the
first form of driving in the U.S. to be fully automated, as long-range big rigs
travel primarily on highways — the easiest roads to navigate without human intervention.
But robots won’t necessarily replace so many human
workers. The report highlights several economic, legal and regulatory hurdles
that could prevent automation, even in jobs where it would be technologically
feasible.
For one, the cost of robots — including maintenance and
repairs — could still be too expensive compared with human workers. And in the
case of self-driving vehicles, questions remain about who is liable in an
accident.
In other words, moving robots outside of a controlled
environment is “still a big step,” said John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC
in Britain.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Friday that he
wasn’t worried about artificial intelligence taking over American jobs.
“I think we’re so far away from that that it’s not even
on my radar screen,” he told Axios Media. “I think it’s 50 or 100 more years.”
Mnuchin also said automation would enable human workers
to do more productive jobs at higher wages. “It’s taken jobs that are
low-paying,” he said. “We need to make sure we are investing in education and
training for the American worker.”
Automation could end up creating some jobs, the PwC
report said. Greater robotic productivity could boost the incomes of those
behind the new technology, which Hawksworth said could flow into the larger
economy.
Sectors that are harder to automate, such as healthcare,
could also see a rise in jobs, he said.
Comments
Post a Comment