Wary of robots taking jobs, Hawaii toys with guaranteed pay
Wary of robots taking jobs, Hawaii toys with guaranteed
pay
September 4, 2017, 10:32 AM
HONOLULU — Driverless trucks. Factory robots. Delivery
drones. Virtual personal assistants.
As technological innovations increasingly edge into the
workplace, many people fear that robots and machines are destined to take jobs
that human beings have held for decades--a trend that is already happening in
stores and factories around the country. For many affected workers, retraining
might be out of reach —unavailable, unaffordable or inadequate.
What then?
Enter the idea of a universal basic income, the notion
that everyone should be able to receive a stream of income to live on,
regardless of their employment or economic status.
It isn't an idea that seems likely to gain traction
nationally in the current political environment. But in some politically
progressive corners of the country, including Hawaii and the San Francisco Bay
area, the idea of distributing a guaranteed income has begun to gain support.
Over the past two decades, automation has reduced the
need for workers, especially in such blue-collar sectors as manufacturing,
warehousing and mining. Many of the jobs that remain demand higher education or
advanced technological skills. It helps explain why just 55 percent of
Americans with no more than a high school diploma are employed, down from 60
percent just before the Great Recession.
Hawaii state lawmakers have voted to explore the idea of
a universal basic income in light of research suggesting that a majority of
waiter, cook and building cleaning jobs — vital to Hawaii's tourism-dependent
economy — will eventually be replaced by machines. The crucial question of who
would pay for the program has yet to be determined. But support for the idea
has taken root.
"Our economy is changing far more rapidly than
anybody's expected," said state Rep. Chris Lee, who introduced legislation
to consider a guaranteed universal income.
Lee said he felt it's important "to be sure that
everybody will benefit from the technological revolution that we're seeing to
make sure no one's left behind."
Here are some questions and answers:
What is a universal basic income?
In a state or nation with universal basic income, every
adult would receive a uniform fixed amount that would be deemed enough to meet
basic needs. The idea gained some currency in the 1960s and 1970s, with
proponents ranging from Martin Luther King Jr. to President Richard Nixon, who
proposed a "negative income tax" similar to basic income. It failed
to pass Congress.
Recently, some technology leaders have been breathing new
life — and money — into the idea. Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and others have
promoted the idea as a way to address the potential loss of many
transportation, manufacturing, retail and customer service jobs to automation
and artificial intelligence.
Even some economists who welcome technological change to
make workplaces more efficient note that the pace of innovation in coming years
is likely to accelerate. Community colleges and retraining centers could find
it difficult to keep up. Supporters of a universal basic income say the money
would cushion the economic pain for the affected workers.
In the long run, that would likely be decided by
political leaders. For now, philanthropic organizations founded by technology
entrepreneurs have begun putting money into pilot programs to provide basic
income. The Economic Security Project, co-led by Facebook co-founder Chris
Hughes and others, committed $10 million over two years to basic income
projects.
A trial program in Kenya, led by the U.S. group
GiveDirectly, is funded mainly funded by Google; the Omidyar Network started by
eBay founder Pierre Omidyar; and GoodVentures, co-led by Facebook co-founder
Dustin Moskovitz.
Providing a basic income in expensive countries like the
United States would, of course, be far costlier.
Tom Yamachika, president of the Tax Foundation of Hawaii,
a nonprofit dedicated to limited taxes and fairness, has estimated that if all
Hawaii residents were given $10,000 annually, it would cost about $10 billion a
year, which he says Hawaii can't afford given its $20 billion in unfunded
pension liabilities.
"Basic income is such a broad subject, it could
encompass hundreds of different kinds of mechanisms to help families," Lee
said. "You don't have to enact the entire thing in one massive program.
You can take bits and pieces that make sense."
Karl Widerquist, co-founder of the U.S. Basic Income
Guarantee Network, an informal group that promotes the idea of a basic income,
suggests that Hawaii could collect a property tax from hotels, businesses and
residents that could be redistributed to residents.
"If people in Alaska deserve an oil dividend, why
don't the people of Hawaii deserve a beach dividend?" he asked.
Other proponents suggest replacing part of the nation's
web of social support programs with a universal basic income. In places like
Finland, this possibility has gained the opposition of the country's powerful
trade unions.
Some, like Natalie Foster, co-chairwoman of the Economic
Security Project, say they think that if universal income took off in the U.S.,
it would begin incrementally — perhaps by taxing carbon emissions and
distributing the money as basic income, an idea explored in California and Washington
D.C.
A study by the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think
tank, found that distributing a universal income by increasing the federal debt
would expand the economy because of the stimulating effects of the additional
cash.
Where does universal basic income exist now?
Not on a large scale in the United States. But the idea
is being pursued in small trials overseas. The program that New York-based
GiveDirectly has established in Kenya is distributing $22 a month to residents
of a village for the next 12 years — roughly what residents need to buy
essentials.
The group says one goal is to assess whether people will
change their behavior if they know they will enjoy a guaranteed income for an
extended time. GiveDirectly is distributing money to 100 people and plans to
expand to 26,000 recipients once the group reaches its $30 million funding
goal, said Paul Niehaus, a co-founder.
"We had someone say, 'I used to work this job in
Nairobi as a security guard because it was the only way I could pay for my
kids' education, but now that I have this basic income I can afford to move
back and actually live with my family again,' " he said.
In Oakland, California, Y Combinator, a startup
incubator, is giving about $1,500 a month to a handful of people selected
randomly and will soon expand distribution to 100 recipients. It eventually
plans to provide $1,000 monthly to 1,000 people and study how recipients spend
their time and how their financial health and well-being are affected.
Finland is distributing money to 2,000 randomly selected
people. It hopes to learn how it might adapt its social security system to a
changing workplace, incentivize people to work and simplify the bureaucracy of
benefits. Canada's province of Ontario earlier this year launched a project to
study the effects of universal basic income in three cities.
In India, which is also considering distributing a
universal basic income, the transportation minister has said the country would
ban driverless cars because they would imperil people's jobs.
What about in the United States?
Republican-leaning Alaska has long distributed revenue
from oil extraction to its residents in payments ranging from about $1,000 to
$2,000 annually.
A study commissioned by the Economic Security Project found
that 72 percent of Alaskans saved the money for essentials, emergencies, debt
payments, retirement or education. Just 1 percent said that receiving the oil
dividend had made them likely to work less.
"People are very supportive of the dividend,"
Foster said. "They don't see it as a handout; they see it as their right
as an Alaskan to receive the income from the oil royalties."
In Hawaii, a group of politicians, economists, social
services providers, business and union representatives will meet in the fall to
begin gathering data. They'll examine Hawaii's economy and its exposure to
disruption and automation and how those trends could affect social safety nets,
Lee said. After that, they'll explore whether it makes sense to offer full or
partial universal income.
"It could very well mean that it would be
significantly cheaper to look at other options rather than let our existing
services be overwhelmed by a changing economy," Lee said.
What do critics say?
Aside from the cost, some detractors say they fear that
distributing free money could diminish some people's work ethic and
productivity.
In Hawaii, which has one of the nation's highest
homelessness rates, some worry that basic income would attract unemployed
people to move to the island.
"A lot of poor people move here anyway, because they
don't freeze," Yamachika said. "This won't help."
© 2017 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Comments
Post a Comment