IBM preps for a post-silicon world
IBM preps for a post-silicon world
Big Blue leaves manufacturing to devote more attention to
next-generation research
By Patrick Thibodeau
Computerworld | Oct 20, 2014 12:42 PM PT
IBM's decision to get out of the semiconductor
manufacturing business may be of little consequence in a post-silicon world.
In a deal announced today, GlobalFoundries is getting
IBM's semiconductor manufacturing business and IBM is paying the company $1.5
billion to take it. In exchange, IBM gets access to manufacturing scale it does
not have.
IBM's latest weak quarter, also announced Monday, clouds
the manufacturing exit. CEO Ginni Rometty all but apologized for the slack
earnings. But that doesn't change the fact that silicon is reaching its performance
limits and there's no clear replacement.
IBM is one of the few global companies with the resources
to figure out what comes next.
In announcing the GlobalFoundries deal, IBM said it has
no plans to cut its planned $3 billion investment in semiconductor technology
research over the next five years. The bigger issue is whether it is spending
enough to extend silicon technologies and, ultimately, replace them.
In July, IBM detailed plans to invest in quantum
computing, as well as brain-like emulation system called neurosynaptic
computing. It is also investigating new materials to replace and extend
silicon, including carbon nanotubes and graphene.
"A lot of our research focuses on post
silicon," Arvind Krishna, general manager of IBM's manufacturing &
development, said in an interview.
IBM is working on 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer chip
designs -- and beyond -- but as size shrinks and silicon transistors near the
point of physical limitation, manufacturing gets more expensive.
Silicon still has a ways to go, and IBM is researching
how to get more use out of it by combining it with other materials.
"Different materials may be able to extend silicon," said Krishna.
Solving the problem of what comes next isn’t just IBM’s
problem, according to said Nathan Brookwood, a semiconductor industry analyst
at Insight 64. “The stakes are not only high for IBM, the stakes are high for
the entire semiconductor industry,” he said.
There is general agreement that silicon chips will reach
their limit at about 7 nanometers, about a decade from now. But Brookwood said
nothing is ever certain, and you can’t count out the possibility that someone
will figure out a way to extend the technology another decade.
On the question of whether IBM is spending enough on
research, Brookwood points to companies such as Intel and Samsung, which are
also investing on extending silicon's usefulness. If one of these companies
doesn’t develop a breakthrough, “then it’s not just IBM that’s in trouble, it’s
the entire semiconductor industry,” he said.
For users of IBM's mainframe and Power-based systems, the
deal with GlobalFoundries changes nothing, said Krishna.
"Given that all the design, all the software, all
the operating systems, all of the firmware and all of the other system
advantages that we put in remain with IBM, my basic answer would be it does not
impact our mainframe, or power system or our storage clients at all," he
said.
Matt Eastwood, an analyst at IDC, said the deal makes
sense because of the changing economics of the semiconductor manufacturing
business. "The cost of semiconductor manufacturing is going to continue to
increase, making it a business where scale will matter more and more going
forward," said Eastwood.
IBM has been working to increase adoption of its Power
architecture. Last year, it formed the OpenPower Consortium, which made Power
hardware and software available for open development. The goal is expand use of
this architecture.
Global Foundries "also hopes that IBM's focus on
growing the OpenPower ecosystem will create new demand for semiconductor
manufacturing services," said Eastwood.
Krishna said GlobalFoundries' manufacturing capability
will also help. "Over time, you will get the at-scale manufacturing that
actually assures the longer-term sustainability of these systems," he
said.
GlobalFoundries was created when AMD's manufacturing arm
was spun off. The company operates in the U.S. and is headquartered here, but
its majority owner is Abu Dhabi.
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