‘Perfectly real’ deepfakes will arrive in 6 months to a year, technology pioneer Hao Li says
‘Perfectly real’ deepfakes will arrive in 6 months to a year,
technology pioneer Hao Li says
KEY
POINTS
- Everyday people will be able to create manipulated images and videos that seem “perfectly real” in “half a year to a year,” industry pioneer Hao Li says.
- “Soon, it’s going to get to the point where there is no way that we can actually detect [deepfakes] anymore, so we have to look at other types of solutions,” says the University of Southern California professor.
- Li defends the
development of deepfake technology, saying the real issue is flagging
those with manipulative intent.
“It’s still very easy, you can
tell from the naked eye most of the deepfakes,” Li, an associate professor of
computer science at the University of Southern California, said on “Power Lunch.”
“But there also are examples that
are really, really convincing,” Li said, adding those require “sufficient
effort” to create.
“Deepfake” refers to the process
using computers and machine-learning software to manipulate videos or digital
representations to make them seem real, even though they are not.
The rise of this technology has,
however, given rise to concerns about how these creations could cause confusion
and propagate disinformation, especially in the context of global politics.
Online disinformation through targeted social-media campaigns and apps such as
WhatsApp has already roiled elections around
the world.
Li’s appearance on CNBC follows an
appearance earlier this week at a Massachusetts Institute of Technology
conference, at which he said he thought perfect deepfakes would arrive in “two
to three years.”
In an email to CNBC after it asked
for clarification, Li said recent developments, in particular the emergence of
the wildly popular Chinese app Zao and the growing research focus, have led him
to “recalibrate” his timeline.
“Also, in some ways we already
know how to do it,” Li wrote in an email, adding that it is “only a matter of
training with more data and implementing it.”
Zao is a face-swapping app that
allows users to take a single photograph and insert themselves into popular TV
shows and movies. It is among China’s most popular apps,
although significant privacy concerns have arisen.
“Soon, it’s going to get to the
point where there is no way that we can actually detect [deepfakes] anymore, so
we have to look at other types of solutions,” Li said on “Power Lunch.”
That is why research by academics
is important, Li said, noting his work on deepfake detection with Hany Farid, a professor at the University of
California at Berkeley.
“If you want to be able to detect
deepfakes, you have to also see what the limits are,” Li said. “If you need to
build A.I. frameworks that are capable of detecting things that are extremely
real, those have to be trained using these types of technologies, so in some
ways it’s impossible to detect those if you don’t know how they work.”
To Li, the issue with deepfakes
isn’t the existence of the technology that can create them.
He said deepfake technology presents
numerous benefits for the fashion and entertainment industries,
for example. It could also enhance the efficacy of video conferencing, Li said.
“The real question is how can we
detect videos where the intention is something that is used to deceive people
or something that has a harmful consequence,” he said.
Comments
Post a Comment