The biggest barrier to Windows 10 success is still Windows 7
The biggest barrier to Windows 10 success is still
Windows 7
The fate of Windows 10 lies in the hands of users that
are still deeply in love with Windows 7.
By Steve Ranger | January 22, 2017 -- 23:00 GMT (15:00
PST)
This year's CES saw plenty of shiny new Windows 10
devices on display, from the acrobat Lenovo Yoga through to HP's all-in-one
Sprout Pro.
Hardware like this will certainly boost the fortunes of
Windows 10. Sleek new designs and form factors, and the rise of two-in-one
devices like the Surface Pro that can function both as a PC and a tablet, are
giving consumers and businesses a reason to invest in Microsoft's latest
operating system.
And Windows 10 has made some decent inroads thus far: it
now accounts for somewhere around a quarter of PCs accessing the internet as
measured by NetMarketShare.
All data like this needs to be looked at in terms of
trends rather than details, of course, but in December 2016 - the most current
data available, Windows 7 stood at 48 percent, Windows 10 had 24 percent,
Windows 8.1 held seven percent, Windows XP nine percent, and Windows 8 had just
two percent.
Contrast that with June 2015, just before Windows 10
arrived. Windows 7 stood at 61 percent, Windows 8.1 at 13 percent, Windows XP
had 12 percent and Windows 8 just three percent.
A few obvious points leap out.
First, Windows XP usage hasn't changed very much at all
as a result of the arrival of Windows 10. That's hardly surprising: Windows XP
wasn't part of the free consumer upgrade programme that Microsoft offered.
Windows XP is long, long past its sell-by date, and most of the hardware
running XP is probably so old that is can't be upgraded anyway. If users are
happy running such an antique and insecure operating system they'll probably
keep using it until the hardware gives up or the Sun expands to finally
vapourise the Earth, whichever is sooner.
Second, Microsoft did a good job encouraging people to
move away from Windows 8. Perhaps they didn't need much encouraging,
considering the reception that Windows 8 got, but it's all but vanished. For
Windows 8.1 its (unsurprisingly) is a similar story and usage has fallen
rapidly, which presumably means many users have been happy to take their
(largely) free upgrade to Windows 10.
But what about Windows 7? This is the big one, of course.
Usage has decline according to the NetMarketShare data - from 61 percent to 48
percent over 18 months, which looks at first glance like a rapid decline.
But the big question for Microsoft is whether that
erosion of Windows 7 usage will continue.
Looking at the numbers more carefully, most of the drop
in Windows 7 usage came in the first year that Windows 10 was available: since
April 2016 Windows 7 usage has stayed pretty stable.
That's likely because most of the switchers were
consumers. More cautious types and businesses in particular have held fire.
In Windows 7, Microsoft built a good product that
companies like. It's now tried and tested, works with their existing
infrastructure and their users are confident using it. And they worry about how
big a leap it is to Windows 10.
More will no doubt consider the upgrade as Windows 7
heads towards the end of its lifecycle (Microsoft's extended support, which
included security updates, ends in January 2020).
Unless Microsoft finds a compelling set of reasons to
encourage upgrades, Windows 7 is will go the same way as Windows XP and become
an operating system that just won't die. That could become a really headache
for Microsoft if it happens.
Microsoft of course would very much like as many users as
possible of Windows 10, if only to help ignite the app ecosystem it is trying
to build. Much hangs on the reception of the Windows 10 Anniversary Update
which some think will be the final push that starts enterprise rollouts. And one
Microsoft exec has already warned that Windows 7 "does not meet the
requirements of modern technology, nor the high security requirements of IT
department."
Microsoft has big ambitions for Windows 10, even if it
has admitted it won't now hit its target of one billion Windows 10 devices by
2018. Just when it does hit that target will depend greatly on persuading
Windows 7 fans to upgrade sooner, rather than later - or not at all.
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