Impact of job-stealing robots a growing concern at Davos
Impact of job-stealing robots a growing concern at Davos
By Martinne Geller and Ben Hirschler January 19, 2017
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Open markets and global
trade have been blamed for job losses over the last decade, but global CEOs say
the real culprits are increasingly machines.
And while business leaders gathered at the annual World
Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos relish the productivity gains technology can
bring, they warned this week that the collateral damage to jobs needs to be
addressed more seriously.
From taxi drivers to healthcare professionals, technologies
such as robotics, driverless cars, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing
mean more and more types of jobs are at risk.
Adidas, for example, aims to use 3-D printing in the
manufacture of some running shoes.
"Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this
revolution is going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going to
affect everyone," said Meg Whitman, chief executive of Hewlett Packard
Enterprise.
So while some supporters of Donald Trump and Brexit may
hope new government policies will bring lost jobs back to America's Rust Belt
or Britain's industrial north, economists estimate 86 percent of U.S.
manufacturing job losses are actually down to productivity, according to the
WEF's annual risks report.
"Technology is the big issue and we don't
acknowledge that," Mark Weinberger, chairman of consultancy EY, said on
Thursday, arguing there was a tendency to always blame trading partners.
The political backdrop is prompting CEOs to take more
seriously the challenge of long-life training of workforces to keep up with the
exponential growth of technological advances.
"I think what we're reaching now is a time when we
may have to find alternative careers through our lifetime," Microsoft
Chief Executive Satya Nadella told Reuters.
Over the last decade, more jobs have been lost to
technology than any other factor, and John Drzik, head of global risk at
insurance broker Marsh, expects more of the same.
"That is going to raise challenges, particularly given
the political context," Drzik, who helped compile the WEF report, said.
Compared to clamping down on immigration by tightening
borders, dealing with the impact of technology destroying jobs is something
that is perhaps even less easily controlled.
For while many advanced technologies remain more
expensive than low or medium-skilled labour in the near term, the shift is
likely to accelerate as costs come down.
WIDENING GAP
Technological advancements require governments,
businesses and academic institutions to develop more educated and highly
skilled workforces, executives in Davos said.
But this shift to skilled workers also widens the income
gap and fuels growing inequality.
Jonas Prising, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup, noted
that U.S. unemployment is only about 2 to 2.5 percent among college-educated
people but 9 or 10 percent among those with low or no skills.
"The idea that we would ban automation as part of an
evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part of the
discussion," Prising said.
He pointed to policies in countries like Denmark and
Italy, where there is a focus on employability of workers.
"If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of
displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger," Procter & Gamble
Chief Executive David Taylor said.
BRAWN AND BRAIN
The scope of the employment risk from what the WEF calls
the "fourth industrial revolution" which "blurs the lines
between the physical, digital, and biological spheres" is unclear.
A University of Oxford study in 2013 said nearly half of
U.S. jobs were at risk, while in 2015 Forrester Research predicted a net loss
of only 7 percent by 2025, as some lost jobs will be replaced with new ones.
Forrester predicts that by 2019, one-quarter of all job
tasks will be offloaded to software robots, physical robots, or customer
self-service automation.
Even the corner office may not be safe.
"CEOs feel reasonably confident we are not going to
be replaced by artificial intelligence," Inga Beale, CEO of the Lloyd's of
London insurance market, said.
"But I'm sure there will be a time!”
(Editing by Alexander Smith)
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