As Robots Take Jobs, Europeans Mull Free Money for All
AS ROBOTS TAKE JOBS, EUROPEANS MULL FREE MONEY FOR ALL
BY JOHN LEICESTER ASSOCIATED PRESS Jan 16, 11:41 AM EST
PARIS (AP) -- I am, therefore I'm paid.
The radical notion that governments should hand out free
money to everyone - rich and poor, those who work and those who don't - is
slowly but surely gaining ground in Europe. Yes, you read that right: a
guaranteed monthly living allowance, no strings attached.
In France, two of the seven candidates vying to represent
the ruling Socialist Party in this year's presidential election are promising
modest but regular stipends to all French adults. A limited test is already
underway in Finland, with other experiments planned elsewhere, including in the
United States.
Called "universal income" by some,
"universal basic income" or just "basic income" by others,
the idea has been floated in various guises since at least the mid-19th
century. After decades on the fringes of intellectual debate, it became more
mainstream in 2016, with Switzerland holding a referendum - and overwhelmingly
rejecting - a proposed basic income of around $2,500 per month.
"An incredible year," says Philippe Van Parijs,
a founder of the Basic Income Earth Network that lobbies for such payments.
"There has been more written and said on basic income than in the whole
history of mankind."
But before you write a resignation letter to your boss in
anticipation of never needing to work again, be warned: there are multiple
questions, including how to finance such schemes. Here is a look at the issues:
---
WHY THE MOUNTING INTEREST?
In a word, robots. With automated systems and machines
increasingly replacing human workers, France could lose 3 million jobs by 2025,
says Benoit Hamon, a former education minister campaigning for the French
presidency on a promise of gradually introducing no-strings-attached payments
for all. As work becomes scarcer, a modest but regular guaranteed income would
stop people from fearing the future and free up their time for family, the
needy and themselves, he argues.
It could also encourage people to take risks, start
businesses and try new activities without the risk of losing welfare benefits.
The other pro-basic income candidate for the Socialist
Party presidential ticket is outsider Jean-Luc Bennahmias. Like Hamon, the
former European Parliament lawmaker argues that it is pointless to expect the
return of economic boom times, with jobs for all.
"Growth at two, three, four or five percent in
western countries: it's finished," he said in a televised debate last
week. "We have to speak the truth."
Outside research backs up their arguments. An Oxford
University study in 2015 estimated nearly half of the American workforce is at
risk of automation.
---
PUT TO THE TEST
Finland's small-scale, two-year trial that started Jan. 1
aims to answer a frequent question from basic income opponents: With a
guaranteed 560 euros ($600) a month, will the 2,000 human guinea pigs - drawn
randomly from Finland's unemployed - just laze around?
Budget constraints and opposition from multiple quarters
stymied ambitions for a broader test, says Olli Kangas from the Finnish
government agency KELA, which is responsible for the country's social benefits.
"It's a pretty watered down version," he said
in a telephone interview. "We had to make a huge number of
compromises."
Still, he argues that such studies are essential in
helping societies prepare for changed labor markets of the future.
"I'm not saying that basic income is the
solution," he said. "I'm just saying that it's a solution that we
have to think about."
In the Netherlands, the city of Utrecht this year plans
to trial no-strings welfare payments that will also allow test groups to work
on the side if they choose - again, in part, to study the effect on their
motivation to find work.
To prepare for "a world where technology replaces
existing jobs and basic income becomes necessary," Silicon Valley startup
financier Y Combinator says it plans a pilot study in Oakland, California,
paying recipients an unconditional income because "we want to see how
people experience that freedom."
---
THE COST
Obviously, expensive. Hamon proposes the gradual
introduction of basic income schemes in France, starting with 600 euros ($640)
per month for the nation's poor and 18-25-year-olds before scaling up payments
to 750 euros ($800) for all adults - for a total estimated annual cost of 400
billion euros ($425 billion).
Part of the cost could be financed by taxing goods and
services produced by automated systems and machines, he says. Opponents argue
that doing so would simply prompt companies to move robots elsewhere, out of
reach of French tax collectors.
Doing away with housing, family, poverty and unemployment
benefits could free up more than 100 billion euros ($106 billion) to fold into
a replacement basic income scheme.
There'd also be less red tape, saving money that way,
too, but switching to basic income would still require new taxes, a 2016 Senate
report said.
It estimated that paying everyone 500 to 1,000 euros
($530-$1,100) per month would cost 300 billion to 700 billion euros ($745
billion-$320 billion) annually. It recommended starting with three-year pilot
schemes with trials involving 20,000-30,000 people.
---
THE CONS
Costs aside, opponents argue that guaranteed incomes
would promote laziness and devalue the concept of work. Hamon's opponents for
the Socialist presidential ticket dispute as false his argument that jobs for
humans are growing scarcer.
Ultimately, to see the light of day, basic income schemes
will need political champions, said Van Parijs.
"We need radical ideas as targets and then we need
clever tinkering to move in that direction," he said.
© 2017 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Comments
Post a Comment