AI And RPA Will Absolutely, Positively Threaten Your Job
AI And RPA Will Absolutely, Positively Threaten Your Job
By Steve Andriole Contributor Jul 23, 2018, 08:46pm
If that headline fails to get your attention, there’s
nothing about artificial intelligence (AI) or robotic process automation (RPA)
that will shock or scare you. Will AI and RPA take your job and kill your
career? It depends on what you do for a living, how old you are, where you live
and your educational credentials.
If you perform routine tasks or even what appear to be
complex deductive inferential tasks we associate with “knowledge” industries,
yes, your job and career are at significant risk: AI and RPA will absolutely,
positively threaten your job, your career and your very professional existence.
It would be naïve and irresponsible for me to say
otherwise – just as it was naïve and irresponsible to tell horse breeders and
coach manufacturers that automobiles were no threat at all, or minicomputer
manufacturers that desktop computers would not threaten their markets –
because, you know, “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in
his home.”
Let’s also not believe for a moment that automation and
low-level AI – combined with lower global labor costs – have been quiet over
the past couple of decades.
Automation (broadly defined) has already redefined or
destroyed millions of jobs and whole industries. While new jobs and industries
have definitely been created during this time, the transitional pain was huge
and will likely increase throughout the rest of the 21stcentury – and forever,
as technology continues its relentless march to some version of productivity
singularity.
Risk Quotients
Four questions:
How old are you? What do you
do? Where do you live? How much – and what kind of – education do
you have? The answers to these questions define your risk profile.
McKinsey & Co. predicts that AI (broadly defined)
will eliminate 77,000,000 jobs over the next 20 years: “our scenarios suggest
that by 2030, 75 million to 375 million workers (3 to 14 percent of the global
workforce) will need to switch occupational categories.”
Bloomberg has developed a tool to help you determine if
you’re likely to be automated. According to Bloomberg’s research (based in part
on research conducted at the University of Oxford), “nearly half of all U.S.
jobs may be at risk in the coming decades, with lower-paid occupations among
the most vulnerable.”
Compensation and benefits managers, auditors,
accountants, credit analysts, loan officers, sales representatives, truck
drivers, administrative services managers and even dental hygienists are at
high risk and “most likely to be automated.”
Some good news? The same research suggests that
physicians, surgeons, lawyers, financial managers, pharmacists, teachers and
computer and information systems managers are among the professions least
likely to be automated. Note that the timing for all this varies. Some analysts
believe significant professional displacement will occur by 2030, while others
believe it will take longer. (It won't take longer.)
Risk Management
What you do, where you live, your age and your level and
nature of education will define your risk quotient and your risk management
strategy. Ironically, AI and RPA can help you automate your risk quotient and
your risk management strategy through a series of simple if/then statements:
If you’re an accountant, live in New York, are 60 years
old, hold a bachelor’s degree, then you can coast to retirement without much
automation risk …
If you’re a loan officer, live in Los Angeles, are 30
years old, hold a bachelor’s degree, then your risk quotient is high: you will
likely be impacted by automation during your career, perhaps severely …
If you’re an elementary school teacher, live in
Washington, DC, are 25 years old and hold a bachelor’s degree, then your risk
quotient is extremely low (but, according to the data, so is your salary) …
Action Plans
You get the idea. The if/then approach to career risk
management (yet another definition of “CRM”) points everyone in the right
direction. AI/RPA will threaten jobs at an unprecedented rate. Everyone needs
to objectively understand where they fit in the value chain in which they live.
We also need to track the pace of technology change which I predict will
accelerate rapidly over time, eclipsing all past rates of change. (Moore’s Law
on steroids.)
The real challenge is to those early in their careers and
those about to launch one. Those new or about-to-enter-the-workforce need to
pay very special attention to AI and RPA – and plan accordingly.
If you’re – or planning to be – a telemarketer, loan
officer, cashier, paralegal, taxi driver or fast food cook, you’re in deep
trouble; but if you’re – or planning to be – a mental health and substance
abuse social worker or occupational therapist, you’re relatively safe.
Education is key. But it must be the right kind of
education. According to Workopolis, “STEM education (science, technology,
engineering, and mathematics) is already important today, but in the future, it
will be essential as unskilled labor will be hardest hit by automation.
However, the prevalence of robots and automated systems will mean an increased
need for engineers, technicians, and managers to build, maintain, and quality
control the work performed by our mechanized labor force.”
Yes, emotional intelligence (EQ) “will be increasingly
important, especially for any jobs that involve human interaction. Emotions,
understanding, empathy – these are things that automation has yet to interpret
and deal with appropriately, which means that positions like teachers, doctors,
nurses, and therapists are safe. The creative fields should be safe for the
same reasons, as automated systems may struggle with expressive creativity in
fields like writing, art, design, and music.”
There’s an old TV series – Hill Street Blues – which
began each episode with a warning:
“Let’s Be Careful Out There.” As
everyone ponders the impact of AI and RPA on their careers, it’s very good
advice.
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