Self-driving cars could save lives even before they’re perfected, report says
Self-driving cars could save lives even before they’re
perfected, report says
A Rand Corp. report analyzes the impact on fatalities if
“moderately safe” autonomous vehicles were deployed rather than waiting to be
“nearly perfect.”
By Carolyn Said November 6, 2017 Updated: November 6, 2017
9:00pm
Putting self-driving cars on the road sooner rather than
later could save hundreds of thousands of lives, according to a report released
Monday by Rand Corp., a Santa Monica policy research nonprofit.
The study analyzes the impact on traffic fatalities if
early autonomous vehicles — those considered “moderately safe” rather than
“nearly perfect” — get a green light for widespread use.
“Getting them on the road when they’re just better than
average saves a lot of lives; it could be hundreds of thousands, up to half a
million,” said Nidhi Kalra, who co-authored the report and is director of
Rand’s San Francisco office. “We can create a lot of societal benefits by
getting the technology out there sooner.”
Although these better-than-average early self-driving cars
“would still cause many crashes, injuries and fatalities,” the number would be
much lower than those caused by humans, the report said.
In the U.S., more than 35,000 people died and 2.4 million
were injured in vehicle crashes in 2015, according to National Safety Council
data cited by the report. Worldwide, auto fatalities are more than 1.3 million
a year. More than 90 percent of crashes are due to human error.
Robot-controlled cars — which currently exist only as
test prototypes — won’t text, get drunk or distracted, or fall asleep, their
advocates frequently point out.
Still, it’s hard to believe that state and federal
lawmakers, who are currently thrashing out how to regulate self-driving cars,
will be swayed by theoretical numbers showing that autonomous vehicles are
safer. As soon as a self-driving car makes an error and kills someone, that
person’s friends and relatives will lobby loudly and passionately to get the
cars off the road.
Surveys have found that half of Americans don’t trust
robot cars. The May 2016 fatal crash of a Tesla in Autopilot mode received
intense media coverage although regulators said the driver over-relied on the
technology.
“There’s a real risk if you don’t carefully prepare the
public,” said Dave Groves, senior policy researcher at Rand and a study
co-author.
“If the public is not ready for fatalities involving
autonomous vehicles when they are first rolled out, it could cause a delay,” he
said. “Maybe the whole technology would get put on ice for 20 years.”
Early deployment would help the cars get better faster,
as they’d learn on the road, the report said.
“We allow new (human) drivers with a fairly low threshold
of performance, with the idea that they need to be on the road to become good
drivers,” Kalra said. “The new autonomous vehicles can get even better by being
exposed to all sorts of weird scenarios. That phenomenon would also result in
lives being saved.”
Kalra said she’s frequently asked by policymakers how
safe the vehicles need to be before they should be allowed, which was the
impetus for the research. But how will regulators decide that robot cars are,
indeed, safer than humans?
“I have an unsatisfying answer: No one yet knows how we
will demonstrate that level of safety,” Kalra said. “It’s a problem the
companies themselves are struggling with.”
Rand’s modeling doesn’t take into account what would
happen if the vehicles were hacked by terrorists, potentially turning them into
weapons. The autonomous cars would have to have “very strong safeguards and
consideration of out-of-left-field, difficult-to-predict situations like
hacking,” Groves said.
Certain aspects of self-driving technology, like
automatic braking if an obstacle looms or sensors to stop drivers from straying
into other lanes, are boosting safety already in human-driven cars — and such
technologies are likely to continue to improve over time.
The study tried to calculate road fatalities over time
under hundreds of different future scenarios and different safety requirements
for robot cars’ introduction. An interactive website lets users adjust criteria
and see different results themselves.
Some consumer advocates warn that the country is rushing
into unproven technology that could cost lives.
“The argument that robot cars and trucks will virtually
eliminate crashes is based on a fallacy: that machines are infallible,”
Consumer Watchdog founder Harvey Rosenfield wrote in a June report. “So for the
moment, the claim that robot vehicles will dramatically reduce vehicular
deaths, injuries and property damage is simply speculation. ... In the short
term, autonomous vehicles will pose new and unprecedented risks as they
interact with traditional cars and trucks on the hybrid highway.”
Relying on computer algorithms, with their “bugs or
biases,” to make life-or-death decisions is foolhardy, Rosenfield’s report
said.
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