Former Google CEO predicts the internet will split in two by 2028 — and one part will be led by China
Former Google CEO predicts the internet will split in two
by 2028 — and one part will be led by China
Speaking at a private event hosted by Village Global VC
yesterday night, tech luminary and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt predicted
that the internet will bifurcate into Chinese-led and US-led versions within
the next decade.
Under Sundar Pichai's leadership, Google has explored the
potential to launch a censored version of its search engine in China, stirring
up controversy internally and outside the company.
By Lora Kolodny September 20, 2018
Eric Schmidt, who has been the CEO of Google and
executive chairman of its parent company, Alphabet, predicts that within the
next decade there will be two distinct internets: one led by the U.S. and the
other by China.
Schmidt shared his thoughts at a private event in San
Francisco on Wednesday night convened by investment firm Village Global VC. The
firm enlists tech luminaries — including Schmidt, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and
Diane Green — as limited partners, then invests their money into early-stage
tech ventures.
At the event, economist Tyler Cowen asked, "What are
the chances that the internet fragments over the years?" Schmidt said:
"I think the most likely scenario now is not a
splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a
non-Chinese internet led by America.
If you look at China, and I was just there, the scale of
the companies that are being built, the services being built, the wealth that
is being created is phenomenal. Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the
GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage of the US, which
is also a big number.
If you think of China as like 'Oh yeah, they're good with
the Internet,' you're missing the point. Globalization means that they get to
play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and
services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and
services comes a different leadership regime from government, with censorship,
controls, etc.
Look at the way BRI works – their Belt and Road
Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries – it's perfectly possible those
countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some
loss of freedom."
The Belt and Road is a massive initiative by Beijing to
increase China's political and economic influence by connecting and
facilitating all kinds of trade, including digital trade, between China and
countries in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
Schmidt's predictions come at a time when his successor
at Google, CEO Sundar Pichai, has stirred up controversy around the company's
strategy in China.
Reportedly, Google has been developing "Project
Dragonfly," a censored version of its search engine that could appease
authorities in China. The project allegedly included a means to suppress some
search results, booting them off the first page, and a means to fully block
results for sensitive queries, for example, around "peaceful
protests."
In recent weeks, hundreds of Google employees lobbied
Pichai for more transparency and signed a letter saying that the reported plans
raised "urgent moral and ethical issues."
Pichai has said that Google has been "very open
about our desire to do more in China," and that the team "has been in
an exploration stage for quite a while now," and considering "many
options," but is nowhere near launching in China.
In a separate discussion last night between Schmidt and
several start-up founders, he lauded Chinese tech products, services and adoption,
especially in mobile payments. He noted that Starbucks in China don't feature a
register. Customers order ahead online and pay with their phones before picking
up their lattes.
A business development leader with Facebook, Ime
Archebong, asked Schmidt if large tech companies are doing enough good in the
world.
Schmidt replied: "The judge of this is others, not
us. Self-referential conversations about 'Do I feel good about what I'm doing?'
are not very helpful. The judge is outside."
At several points in the private discussion, Schmidt
urged entrepreneurs to build products and services that are not merely
addictive, but valuable. He also said not enough companies "measure the
right things." Too many focus on short-term revenue growth and satisfying
shareholders, rather than what's best for their users, society and the
long-term health of their companies.
Schmidt was the CEO of Google from 2001, when he took
over from co-founder Larry Page, through 2011, when Page reclaimed the reins.
He remained as executive chairman of Google and then Alphabet until earlier
this year.
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