'This is your computer speaking. We are now cruising at 580mph and an altitude of 36,000ft...'
'This is your computer speaking. We are now cruising at
580mph and an altitude of 36,000ft...'
By Alan Tovey 7 AUGUST 2017 • 3:10PM
“This is your computer speaking. We’re currently cruising
at 580mph at an altitude of 36,000ft….”
It sounds incredible but airliners without a human at the
controls could be flying passengers through the skies within a decade - saving
airlines billions by doing away with pilots and cutting ticket prices for
passengers.
Research by analysts at UBS claims the pilotless aircraft
could generate $35bn a year in savings for airlines.
The money would come not only from eliminating highly
paid pilots who require expensive training, but by making aircraft safer by
having them controlled by computers which are less likely to make errors. US
safety data attributes three quarters of accidents to human error.
Flights would also be more efficient because of the
exacting nature of the way they would be flown digitally, meaning less fuel
would be used, and aircraft could be flown closer together, allowing air space
to be more crowded.
Finally, aircraft would be able to be used more
intensively, as they would not require rest days that pilots currently get.
UBS analysts Jarrod Castle and Celine Fornaro point out
that similar “technology to remotely control military drones already exists and
this could be adapted to civil applications”.
They predict that the first aircraft to embrace
self-flying technology will be those carrying only cargo, first removing one of
the two pilots normally in the cockpit, then eventually replacing them altogether.
Private jets are expected to follow, then helicopters, with airliners the last
to adopt the new technology.
However, the research warns that while the savings
generated by cutting out pilots might be attractive to airlines - the concept
isn’t so warmly welcomed by passengers.
UBS’s survey of 8,000 people found that 54pc of them
wouldn’t want to take a pilotless flight even if it were cheaper and only 17pc
said they were likely to - a much lower level than those willing to travel in a
driverless car.
British pilots’ association Balpa also warned said it had
“concerns” about “the excitement of this futuristic idea” - but noted that
cockpits are already highly automated. Currently technology means that the
majority flights are under the control of autopilot and modern aircraft can
land without a human taking the controls.
But when things go wrong, Balpa said people want a human
in the cockpit.
“Automation already supports operations but every single
day pilots have to intervene when the automatics don’t do what they’re supposed
to,” said Steve Landells, Balpa flight safety specialist. “Computers can fail,
and often do, and someone is still going to be needed to work that computer.
Most of us own some sort of electronic device that can do amazing things –
however, a human is still required to operate it.”
Balpa doubts truly pilotless aircraft will ever be a
reality, with it more likely that pilots will control airliners remotely from
ground stations - but even this might not be enough to reassure passengers.
“Public perception is still uncertain when it comes to
automation and many might still be
uncomfortable knowing that their life is in the hands of someone sat in a
control tower hundreds or thousands of miles away,” said Mr Landells. “Having a
pilot on the aircraft who is as much at risk as the passengers is probably the
surest guarantee of safety there can be.”
If regulators can also be convinced and airlines can get
passengers on board with the idea of pilotless planes, UBS believes there will
be further opportunities across the aerospace sector.
Cockpits typically make up 5pc of the total cost of an
aircraft and this could rise with the greater technology required for computer
piloted aircraft, meaning suppliers could increase their prices. They could
also offer higher margin “flight by the hour” deals where airlines pay for
flight time, rather than buy an airliner outright and pay for it to be
serviced.
It could also radically alter the current airline sector,
with flight by the hour deals lowering costs to entry by reducing the capital
outlay needed for new planes and cutting out expensive crew training. This
could mean new players entering the sector, having a huge impact on established
“legacy” airliners and even low-cost carriers who have cut costs to the bone.
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