Robot Revolution: 47% of Workers at Risk of Being Displaced by 2035
Robot revolution: rise of 'thinking' machines could
exacerbate inequality
Global economy will be transformed over next 20 years at
risk of growing inequality, say analysts
By Heather Stewart
Wednesday 4 November 2015 19.01 EST Last modified on
Thursday 5 November 201503.39 EST
A “robot revolution” will transform the global economy
over the next 20 years, cutting the costs of doing business but exacerbating
social inequality, as machines take over everything from caring for the elderly
to flipping burgers, according to a new study.
As well as robots performing manual jobs, such as
hoovering the living room or assembling machine parts, the development of
artificial intelligence means computers are increasingly able to “think”,
performing analytical tasks once seen as requiring human judgment.
“We are facing a paradigm shift which will change the way
we live and work,” the authors say. “The pace of disruptive technological
innovation has gone from linear to parabolic in recent years. Penetration of
robots and artificial intelligence has hit every industry sector, and has
become an integral part of our daily lives.”
However, this revolution could leave up to 35% of all
workers in the UK, and 47% of those in the US, at risk of being displaced by
technology over the next 20 years, according to Oxford University research
cited in the report, with job losses likely to be concentrated at the bottom of
the income scale.
“The trend is worrisome in markets like the US because
many of the jobs created in recent years are low-paying, manual or services
jobs which are generally considered ‘high risk’ for replacement,” the bank
says.
“One major risk off the back of the take-up of robots and
artificial intelligence is the potential for increasing labour polarisation,
particularly for low-paying jobs such as service occupations, and a
hollowing-out of middle income manual labour jobs.”
The authors calculate that the total global market for
robots and artificial intelligence is expected to reach $152.7bn (£99bn) by
2020, and estimate that the adoption of these technologies could improve
productivity by 30% in some industries.
They point out that Google bought eight robotics
companies in a two-month period in 2014, from Boston Dynamics, which makes the
BigDog robot, to DeepMind, specialising in deep learning for artificial
intelligence.
In the most advanced manufacturing sectors – among
Japan’s carmakers, for example – robots are already able to work unsupervised
round the clock for up to 30 days without interruption. While offshoring
manufacturing jobs to low-cost economies can save up to 65% on labour costs,
replacing human workers with robots saves up to 90%.
Manufacturers could save up to 90% of wage costs by
replacing workers with robots.
At present, there are on average 66 robots per 10,000
workers worldwide, the report finds; but in the highly automated Japanese car
sector there are 1,520.
But it is not just low-skilled jobs, such as
assembly-line work, that could be replaced: a report from the McKinsey Global
Institute in 2013 found that up to $9tn in global wage costs could be saved as
computers take over knowledge-intensive tasks such as analysing consumers’
credit ratings and providing financial advice.
Enthusiasts for the rise of robots argue that they can
overcome the foibles and fallibilities of human workers. The report cites
research that showed judges tend to be more draconian in the run up to
lunchtime and more lenient once they have eaten, for example.
It urges consumers to invest in businesses that are
already taking advantage of the benefits of the new technologies: “Early
adoption will be a key comparative advantage, while those that lag in
investment will see their competitiveness slip.”
However, the bank also points out that major ethical and
social issues will increasingly arise: they cite the moral questions about the
growing use of unmanned drones in warfare; and even the emergence of a pressure
group called the Campaign Against Sex Robots.
Fears about humans being displaced by machines are not
new: in the early 19th century bands of angry Luddites smashed up the
steam-powered looms that were throwing hand-weavers out of work.
Beijia Ma, the report’s lead author, said that over the
past 200 years and more, societies have eventually found ways of turning
technological developments to their advantage.
She said the best advice for people fearing the rise of
the robots is to polish up their skills. “It’s not meant to be a doom and gloom
report: one of the ways we think people could help themselves here is through
education.”
However, Ma added that a recent survey of industry
experts, by the US polling firm Pew, revealed a stark divide between
techno-optimists and pessimists.
Almost half of them, 48%, believed the rise of robots and
artificial intelligence would have “a massive detrimental impact on society,
where digital agents displace both blue- and white-collar workers, leading to
income inequality and breakdowns in social order”.
Meanwhile, 52% “anticipated that human ingenuity would
overcome and create new jobs and industries”.
Andrew Simms, of thinktank the New Weather Institute,
said the rise of new technologies could be an opportunity to realise the
aspirations of the economist John Maynard Keynes, who predicted in 1930 that
within a century, technology would have enabled the working week to be reduced
to 15 hours with the rest of the time devoted to leisure.
However, without rethinking the relationship between work
and society, the result could be a growing disparity between economic winners
and losers.
“We are in danger, for the first time in history, of
creating a large number of people who are not needed,” he said. “The question
should be, what sort of economy do you want, and to meet what human needs?”
Under threat?
A wide range of jobs could eventually be taken over by
machines, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s analysts predict.
Burger flippers A San Francisco-based start-up called
Momentum Machines has designed a robot that would replicate the hot, repetitive
tasks of the fast-food worker: shaping burgers from ground meat, grilling them
to order, toasting buns, and adding tomatoes, onions and pickles.
Manufacturing workers Relatively low-skilled industrial
workers in rich countries have become used to competing against cut-price
employees in cheaper economies. But while “offshoring” can cut labour costs by
65%, replacing workers with machines can cut them by up to 90%. The process is
well advanced in countries such as Japan and South Korea; as other countries
catch up, many more jobs will be taken over by technology.
Financial advisers Bespoke financial advice seems like
the epitome of a “personal” service; but it could soon be replaced by
increasingly sophisticated algorithms that can tailor their responses to an
individual’s circumstances.
Doctors Some 570,000 “robo-surgery” operations were
performed last year. Oncologists at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
in New York have used IBM’s Watson supercomputer, which can read 1m textbooks
in three seconds, to help them with diagnosis. Other medical applications of
computer technology involve everything from microscopic cameras to “robotic
controlled catheters”.
Care workers Merrill Lynch predicts that the global personal
robot market, including so-called “care-bots”, could increase to $17bn over the
next five years, “driven by rapidly ageing populations, a looming shortfall of
care workers, and the need to enhance performance and assist rehabilitation of
the elderly and disabled”.
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