In the age of artificial intelligence, can we rise to the challenge of mass unemployment?
In the age of artificial intelligence, can we rise to the
challenge of mass unemployment?
Timothy J. Peirson-Smith says we must heed the warnings
of the potentially massive job losses that come with technological advances –
not by panicking but by devising sensible strategies to deal with all the
moral, social and financial issues
By Timothy J. Peirson-Smith PUBLISHED: Thursday, 30
November, 2017, 6:05pm
Artificial intelligence is with us today and not purely
as a term that appears in technology magazines and websites for geeks. Instead,
it is an ongoing series of fundamental changes to our world that has the
potential to alter most of the existing rules that govern global society.
Decades ago, AI and robots were introduced into heavy
industry – in coal mines, steel plants and car manufacturing – resulting in
losses of low-paid jobs that were bemoaned by manual workers alone. Today,
however, AI and automation is not merely manufacturing muscle, but – thanks to
the blockchain technology used for cryptocurrencies – it can also think, learn
and understand infinite languages and respond instantly.
AI is already omnipresent. Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking
foresaw threats beyond those to the working class, and suggested that the rise
of AI is likely to “extend job destruction deep into the middle classes, with
only the most caring, creative or supervisory roles remaining”.
The myriad of efficiencies and advantages of AI are
apparent to business. AI works 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. AI never takes
sick leave and needs no overtime payments. But will it only be the middle
classes that will be made redundant, and will supervisors and professionals be
safe? Perhaps not.
Dragon Law, for example, is a cloud-based legal software
solution established in Hong Kong. It and other such sites provide legal
support through cloud technology. Further, universities today are restructuring
law degree syllabuses, and others, to strip out case study learning as AI
simply does it better and faster.
But it’s not only lawyers and their clerks who should
look over their shoulders; doctors need to, too. There are numerous online
medical consultation platforms that many people routinely interrogate before
stepping anywhere near a surgery. Hong Kong’s trading floor recently closed due
to AI-driven trades and many predict that 30 per cent of corporate audits will
be done by AI by 2025.
So, if professional advisory roles can be taken over by
AI, are we heading towards a jobless society in future? Experts are predicting
that over half of today’s jobs are “at risk” to AI in the foreseeable future,
with only a minority of elite left working.
The clash between man and machine is capitalism’s
ultimate challenge
Respected business leaders tell us not everyone wants to
work. And what about all that free time to do what makes us happy?
Others say the real challenge is to harness AI to find
new jobs faster than the old conventional jobs are lost. With their feet closer
to the ground, others have forecast that the rate of lost jobs will be
exponentially faster than new jobs can be generated. It seems more likely that
we will have a job deficit and a rise in unemployment rates within several
decades, especially in more “developed” economies.
Universal basic income is an idea advocated by Silicon
Valley plutocrats to give these unemployed citizens a steady income. In one
trial of this idea, the Helsinki government is running a programme that
distributes €560 (HK$5,200) every month to 2,000 unemployed citizens for two
years. The recipients do not have to report if they are looking for employment
or say how they are spending the handout.
If this is our future, then as social subsidies and
handouts rise, how can governments continue to provide the same level of public
services and infrastructure to support a rapidly ageing society where the
majority are jobless? The United States today receives 37 per cent of its
funding from salaries tax. Where will some of this revenue come from in the
future when fewer are working, earning and paying taxes?
Bill Gates, a transformative figure in IT, suggests that
governments should tax the use of AI and impose a “robot tax” on companies,
which have benefited from the massive labour savings generated by AI.
In addition, other shortcomings will adversely affect
daily life. Losing a job means losing a source of family income, social esteem
and a channel to maintain social relationships. We humans are social creatures
and interactions in the workplace have been essential in the fabric of our
lives. With fewer jobs, less money and less social interactions, experts
predict that there could be a much greater demand for mental health funding and
support.
As Garry Kasparov, a world chess champion who was
famously beaten by IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer in 1997, observed in his new
book: “Waxing nostalgic about jobs lost to technology is little better than
complaining that antibiotics put too many gravediggers out of work.”
While business today stands amazed by AI’s marching
advancement and management consultants espouse the infinite job-killing
prospects of AI, machine learning and automation, they – and we – must stop and
pause, to think. Think, that is, about putting in at least the same amount of
effort to better predicting the effects of AI, and mitigating the consequences,
be they societal, fiscal or ethical.
Timothy J. Peirson-Smith is managing director of
Executive Counsel Limited, a public affairs and strategic communications
consultancy based in Hong Kong
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post
print edition as: Deep thinking
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