DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU’LL BE 285 DAYS FROM NOW AT 2 P.M.?
DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU’LL BE 285 DAYS FROM NOW AT 2 P.M.?
THESE DATA-MASTERS DO. MICROSOFT RESEARCHERS HAVE DEVELOPED
A MOBILITY PREDICTION SYSTEM THAT KNOWS WHERE YOU WILL BE, EVEN YEARS DOWN THE
ROAD. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS?
BY: CAMILLE SWEENEY AND JOSH GOSFIELD
Would you like to know how crowded your drive to the
beach will be in three weeks? Or where your ex will be on a Friday night next
month so that you can avoid him?
Adam Sadilek, formerly of Microsoft, now a researcher at
Google, and John Krumm, a principal researcher at Microsoft, were inspired by
the question of predicting where people would be in the future and even led off
with the query, “Where are you going to be 285 days from now at 2PM?” in their
their paper, Far Out: Predicting Long-Term Human Mobility.
“At first glance,” the researchers told us, “it sounds
like a very difficult problem.”
Sadilek, Krumm, and others have done a lot of research on
predicting where a person might be in the immediate future--say, in an hour or
two. Logically enough, it's been found that a person’s previous location is a
good clue for their next location. But as these models are extended into the
future, they give poorer and poorer results. To guess with any accuracy where
someone would be in 20 or 200 days would be more of a challenge. In order to do
so, Sadilek and Krumm realized, they’d have to develop new techniques.
Using information from a pool of 300 volunteers in the
Seattle metro area, Sadilek and Krumm gathered a mountain of location data. As
the volunteers went about their daily lives--going to work, to the grocery
store, out for a jog, even for transcontinental travel--each carried a GPS
device much the same way they carried a cell phone. To further ensure accuracy,
the researchers also installed GPS devices in commercial shuttles and transit
vans that the volunteers used regularly, and the volunteers’ own vehicles.
After collecting over 150 million location points, the researchers then had Far
Out, the first system of its kind to predict long-term human mobility in a
unified way, parse the data. Far Out didn't even need to be told exactly what
to look for--it automatically discovered regularities in the data.
“For example, it might notice that Tuesdays and Thursdays
are usually about the same and fairly consistent from week to week,” the
researchers told us. “Then when we ask about a future Tuesday or Thursday, the
algorithm automatically produces a typical Tuesday/Thursday as a prediction.”
Salidek and Krumm were pleasantly surprised with the
results. It turns out that no matter how spontaneous we think we are, humans
are actually quite predictable in our movements, even over extended periods of
time. Not only did Far Out predict with high accuracy the correct location of a
wide variety of individuals, but it did so even years into the future.
When we asked how Far Out compensates for people who
change jobs, cities, spouses or even just neighborhoods, the researchers said
that the Far Out model adapts to new data. “If there is a sharp transition,
such as a move to another city, the system notices there is a discrepancy
between its predictions and actual data and adapts to the new patterns,” the
researchers said. “Most people have only a few ‘revolutionary’ changes in the
course of their lives, so Far Out isn't caught off guard too often.”
For now Far Out is strictly a research project not yet
available in commercial products or services. And although its focus currently
is on the future whereabouts of single individuals, eventually, the
researchers' hope is that it can be applied to larger populations. This could
be a boon to urban planners by leading to more accurate predictions about the
spread of disease, traffic congestion, and the demand for electricity.
ON THE SOCIAL SIDE, THERE COULD EVEN BE SOMETHING LIKE A
FOURSQUARE OF THE FUTURE.
Marketers and advertisers, too, would relish the opportunity
to target our future selves with ads like, “Need a haircut? In four days,
you’ll be 100 yards from a salon that will have a $15 special.” On the social
side, there could even be something like a Foursquare of the Future--who
wouldn’t want to know where their friends (and enemies) will be for the rest of
their lives…or at least for the next 285 days?
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