The end of the PC, courtesy of Microsoft

By Galen M. Gruman

Created 2012-02-14

For a couple months now, people have been buzzing about the iPad's role in propelling Apple to the top slot of computer sellers -- if you count the tablet as a computer, of course. More recently, we've heard the iPad now outsells not only desktop PCs in general, but also Hewlett-Packad's entire computer line (desktop and laptops). Many have pointed to this as the end of the PC era, but conventional wisdom contends that the PC's domination has a long time to go, even if it is on the slide.

I now believe the decline will be rapid, thanks to news of Microsoft's development of a touch-savvy version of its Office suite [1] that will be nearly as functional as the 23-year-old suite found on traditional (meaning x86-based) PCs everywhere. I've long thought that the iPad, the iPhone, and their ilk were the future of computing -- these devices would be portable brains that extend their capabilities by docking into monitors, input devices, storage, and other resources. I have no doubt Apple's working on realizing the strategy [2], and over time its iPad will overtake the MacBook Air [3], then the other Mac variants as iOS subsumes or merges with Mac OS X. Others, such as Motorola Mobility [4] (soon to be owned by Google), are also working toward that future.

[ Windows 8 is coming, and InfoWorld can help you get ready with the Windows 8 Deep Dive PDF special report [5], which explains Microsoft's bold new direction for Windows, the new Metro interface for tablet and desktop apps, the transition from Windows 7, and more. | Stay abreast of key Microsoft technologies in our Technology: Microsoft newsletter [6]. ]

I believed Microsoft would be the brake that slowed this momentum, given its dependence on Windows and Office as major income sources. Microsoft's history is to let others innovate, then capitalize on those discoveries and its massive installed base to incorporate those breakthroughs.

But the future led by Apple and others works very much against the Microsoft vision and installed-based advantage, so I figured Microsoft would be wary of assimilation. Certainly, the confusing signals Microsoft has sent [8] since September on the extent of its ARM support for Windows 8, much less Office, lent credence to that view. And a little over a year ago, departing CTO Ray Ozzie warned Microsoft it had to embrace the emerging post-PC era [9], a signal that I and others interpreted as meaning he left because Microsoft chose not to.

I may have been wrong. It now appears that Microsoft is doing one of its famous "make the aircraft carrier turn like a speedboat" maneuvers with Windows 8, as it did with the Internet in 2005 [10] under then-CEO Bill Gates's orders. Credit seems to belong to Microsoft Windows president Steven Sinofsky, who took over Windows development after the Vista debacle, reworked it as the widely liked Windows 7, then charted the Windows 8 course -- and now appears to have taken over Microsoft's bumbling Windows Phone effort [11].

I hear increasingly from tech industry execs that Microsoft really gets it this time and has assembled a crack team to pursue a future where desktop and mobile are irrelevant. In this scenario, the future is about heterogeneous endpoints through which services and information flow as people move from one device to the next based on their needs and context. Yes, that describes the notion behind Apple's still young and limited iCloud ecosystem [12] -- and behind Windows 8 and its companion Windows Live service [13].

So, you might ask, what's new? iCloud and Windows 8 aren't new revelations, after all. What's new is that Windows 8 may not be the awkwardly bifurcated platform it first appeared to be, with a "full" Windows 8 (meaning the Windows 7 desktop and the touch-oriented Metro UI overlay [14]) on x86-based PCs, laptops, and perhaps tablets, while a mobile-oriented "lite" Windows 8 (meaning just Metro) lives on ARM-based tablets and perhaps laptops and PCs. That split clearly favored the x86 PC.

What Microsoft has shown of Metro so far is not that compelling: It's a lighter-weight OS than Apple's iOS or Google's Android, translated into weakly useful widgets in Microsoft's demos. Likewise, the ARM world that one could envision from Microsoft's drips of information was not particularly inspiring, appearing more as a warning shot to Intel to get its power act together.

Apple explicitly read Intel the riot act [15] about its power-hogging chips as well, going as far as demonstrating a port of Mac OS X from x86 to ARM to show that it could drop Intel. After all, the iPad's ARM-based iOS comes from the same core as Mac OS X. The results of that pressure are the new Intel Atom CPUs soon to appear in mobile devices and a revamped Core i5 chip family due next year that promises iPad- and MacBook Air-like battery life [16] without the major efforts that Apple had to make to get the MacBook Air's long battery life.

With ARM devices restricted to a lightweight Metro UI and Intel fixing its errant ways, it seemed obvious that an ARM-based Windows 8 tablet or laptop would be not much more useful than a Google Chrome OS-based Chromebook, primarily a browser-oriented device -- and one that has failed spectacularly [17] among buyers.

Decoupling Office from x86 is pivotal
But if Microsoft can truly port Office -- the complex desktop version, not the useless iteration available on Windows Phone 7 -- then Windows 8 on ARM could become most users' PC. The Windows 7 core underlying Windows 8 has been the essential component to support Office, and most people use PCs to just run a browser, do email, manage their contacts and calendar, and work with Office. The first three can be accomplished with an iPad or Android tablet today, as well as with the Windows 8 Metro environment. Office was the one component that would keep most users on the x86 version.

With Office no longer tied to the x86 version of Windows, most people could get an ARM-based tablet or laptop. I suspect most will, even if not in the first few months. The iPad's roaring success shows people don't need a bulky OS most of the time. Yes, some people will need "full" PCs (or Macs, in some cases) to run heavy apps -- financial analysts, video editors, core ERP users, and the like. For them, the x86-based PC (or Mac) will be the new workstation, used by perhaps 10 percent of the computing population. The rest don't need it, and for the few times they may, the well-established desktop virtualization [18] technology could let them access a workstation PC from a tablet or "lite" laptop.

Plus, based on the video snippets Sinofsky showed of the ARM-based Office, it lacks the ribbon interface. Microsoft's traditional Windows and Office interfaces have grown more complex and inscrutable over time. (Microsoft always claims it conducts extensive user interface research, but still revamps the UI every chance it gets. It must be using a different species of alien each time.) In a touch-oriented environment, rows and rows of small, undeciperhable icons just don't work. Someone at Microsoft seems to have realized that, and perhaps Office for ARM will be truly usable. That alone could move many users away from the "heavy" x86 version of Office and, thus, Windows.

Of course, Microsoft's promises don't matter if it doesn't deliver. What Sinofsky described as a highly capable version of Office could be crippled in its capabilities. He made no specific functionality promises and added the caveats that Office for ARM-based Windows would be optimized for touch and low-power systems, two excuses that could be used to explain missing capabilities in the final shipping version.

Microsoft has done this before. Ask any Mac user: Office for Mac lacks key Windows Office capabilities -- such as the ability to integrate with the Office 365 cloud service, to integrate with SharePoint, and to use Visual Basic macros -- because Microsoft withheld those technologies from the Mac deployment.

I'm sure the ARM version of Office will have omissions that cause people to complain. But I have more faith that Microsoft has seen the emerging post-PC future and has decided not to cede it to Apple. In turn, it will do mostly the right thing when Windows 8 is released this fall (or whenever), and improve from there.

Still, there is one troubling sign that Microsoft could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory: ARM Office operates on a special x86-style desktop that will run only Office, no third-party apps allowed. I wonder if Microsoft is cheating by running Office via embedded hardware, not on Metro. If ARM Office isn't running in Metro, that suggests Metro can't do real apps, just widgets. In that case, ARM tablets will have appeal but end up as poor cousins to the highly capable iPad, for which many hard-core apps are available, from video editing to sound mixing, from office productivity to data visualization. But it's still a reasonable alternative for many PC users.

Intel's future is now fully up to it
Does the beginning of the end of the traditional PC (desktop and laptop) mean the end of Intel? Not necessarily. Certainly, if Microsoft delivers what Sinofsky has promised, Intel will not be able to depend on Windows to support its sales. Intel will have to compete on its own merits against the ARM ecosystem.

The slap in the face by Apple last year, and the polite but clear message from Microsoft a few months later, got Intel's attention. Since then, company officials have been talking up power efficiency and mobile fit. They've even invested in touch research.

As a sign that Intel still has some leaning to do, the chipmaker got ahead of itself in its Ultrabook effort [16], meant to encourage sales of Windows laptops, which have been losing ground to Apple's beloved MacBook Air [19], by emulating the Air. However, Intel let PC makers deliver Ultrabooks that looked like but didn't deliver like the Air -- in part because Intel hadn't completed its chip work. Users weren't fooled [20], and it's a real possibility that this effort has reconfirmed the superiority of the MacBook Air and iPad.

We're still a year away from the redesigned Core i5 chips, so Windows 8's expected release about six months from now puts Intel in an awkward position: The tablet-savvy ARM version of Windows 8 and Office 15 could be available before Intel's promised-to-be-equalizing technology. Businesses won't upgrade to Windows 8 for several years, so that core market will remain open to persuasion. In the near term, individuals will be more tempted to switch to ARM-based devices, whether they're Windows 8 tablets or iPads. Alternatively, they could switch to MacBook Airs to get the "heavy" OS functionality in a better x86-based package.

History repeats itself -- sort of
It'll be ironic but appropriate to witness Microsoft deal the final blow to the PC as we've known it. As with the original PC, Apple showed the future, but Microsoft formalized it. I don't think Apple will suffer the same slide to niche status as seen with the original Mac -- Apple is not a naive company any more, and it's running an amazing engine.

I suspect it'll be a Microsoft-Apple duopoly for some time to come, and the naive company that will fade away as a platform provider is Google.

Stay tuned!

This article, "The end of the PC, courtesy of Microsoft [21]," was originally published at InfoWorld.com [22]. Read more of Galen Gruman's Mobile Edge blog [23] and follow the latest developments in mobile technology [24] at InfoWorld.com. Follow Galen's mobile musings on Twitter at MobileGalen [25]. For the latest business technology news, followInfoWorld.com on Twitter [26].

Source URL (retrieved on 2012-02-14 12:31PM): http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobile-technology/the-end-of-the-pc-courtesy-of-microsoft-186135

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Ken Garen, CPA, Co-Founder and President, UBCC

The end of the PC, courtesy of Microsoft

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