AI will outperform humans in all tasks in just 45 years and could take over EVERY job in the next century
Artificial
intelligence will outperform humans in all tasks in just 45 years and could
take over EVERY job in the next century, experts claim
·
Researchers surveyed 352
machine learning experts to forecast AI progress
·
They say there’s a 50%
chance AI will outperform humans in all tasks in 45 years
·
And, they they also
found a 50% chance machines will take all jobs in 120 years
·
AI will outperform
humans at translation, truck driving, essay writing in 10 yrs
·
In less than
50 years, artificial intelligence will be able to beat humans at all of their
own tasks, according to a new study.
And, the first hints of this shift will become apparent
much sooner.
Within the next ten years alone, the researchers found AI
will outperform humans in language translation, truck driving, and even writing
high-school essays – and, they say machines could be writing bestselling books
by 2049.
+2
In less than 50 years, artificial intelligence will be
able to beat humans at all of their own tasks, according to a new study. And,
the first hints of this shift will become apparent much sooner. A stock image
is pictured
In a new study, researchers from Oxford
University’s Future of Humanity Institute, Yale University, and AI Impacts
surveyed 352 machine learning experts to forecast the progress of AI in the
next few decades.
The experts were asked about the timing of specific
capabilities and occupations, as well as their predictions on when AI will
become superior over humans in all tasks – and what the social implications of
this might be.
The researchers predicted that machines will be better
than humans at translating languages by 2024, writing high-school essays by
2026, driving a truck by 2027, and working in retail by 2031.
By 2049, they’ll be able to write a bestseller, and by
2053, they’ll be working as surgeons, they said.
According to the researchers, there’s a 50 percent chance
artificial intelligence will outperform humans in all tasks in just 45 years.
And, by the same likelihood, they say machines could take
over all human jobs in 120 years.
Some said this could even happen sooner.
JOBS THAT PAY LESS THAN $20 ARE AT RISK OF ROBOT
TAKEOVER
There is an 83 percent chance that
artificial intelligence will eventually takeover positions that pay low-wages,
says White House's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
A recent report suggests that those who are
paid less than $20 an hour will be unemployed and see their jobs filled by
robots over the next few years.
But for workers who earn more than $20 an
hour there is only a 31 percent chance and those paid double have just a 4
percent risk.
To reach these numbers the CEA's 2016
economic report referred to a 2013 study about the 'automation of jobs
performed by Oxford researchers that assigned a risk of automation to 702
different occupations'.
Those jobs were then matched to a wage that
determines the worker's risk of having their jobs taken over by a robot.
'The median probability of automation was
then calculated for three ranges of hourly wage: less than 20 dollars; 20 to 40
dollars; and more than 40 dollars,' reads the report.
The risk of having your job taken over by a
robot, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman told reporters that
it 'varies enormously based on what your salary is.'
Furman also noted that the threat of robots
moving in on low-wage jobs is, 'another example of why those investments in
education to make sure that people have skills that complements automation are
so important,' referring to programs advocated by President Obama.
Artificial intelligence is fast improving its
capabilities, and has increasingly proven itself in historically
human-dominated fields.
The Google-owned algorithm AlphaGo, for example, just
recently defeated the world’s top player in the ancient Chinese game Go,
sweeping a three-game series.
After outperforming humans on numerous occasions, the
algorithm – which has been anointed the new ‘Go god’ – is now retiring.
While AI is expected to benefit society in many ways, the
researchers also say machines will present a new set of challenges.
‘Advances in artificial intelligence will have massive
social consequences,’ the authors wrote.
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Artificial intelligence is fast improving its
capabilities, and has increasingly proven itself in historically
human-dominated fields. The experts were asked about the timing of specific
capabilities and occupations. A stock image is pictured
‘Self-driving technology might replace millions of
driving jobs over the coming decade.
‘In addition to possible unemployment, the transition
will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting
vehicle cyber-security, and adapting laws and regulations.
‘New challenges, both for AI developers and
policy-makers, will also arise from applications in law enforcement, military
technology, and marketing.’
The news isn’t all bad, though.
In the survey, the researchers also determined the probability
of an ‘extremely bad’ outcome, like human extinction as a result of AI, is only
5 percent.
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