7 far-out technologies closer than you think
If it's cliché to say that yesterday's science fiction is
today's off-the-shelf tech, it's only because it's come true time and again.
That process of transforming the crackpot into the
practical hasn't come to a standstill: There's a fresh crop of tech on the way
that makes use of everything from quantum mechanics to carbon nanotubes.
Here are seven technologies, once either at the bleeding
edge or entirely off the map, but now emerging as realities or soon-to-be
realities on the desktop and in the data center.
1. Quantum computing
The tech: The core concept of quantum computing has been
on the drawing board for decades now: Exploiting the behavior of matter at the
subatomic level to create a computer that solves problems exponentially faster.
Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM have all thrown money at it, while the NSA
wants to use it to render current-generation encryption obsolete.
The timeframe: Depending on whom you ask, quantum
computing's already arrived. One firm, D-Wave, has been marketing its
quantum-computing product to Google, NASA, and Lockheed-Martin, with list
prices in the millions of dollars. But controversy remains as to whether
D-Wave's products provide real improvements over a regular computer, and we've
yet to see a truly earth-shaking application of quantum computing in the real
world.
2. Quantum cryptography
The tech: Hand-in-hand with quantum computing comes
quantum cryptography, a way to use the effects of quantum mechanics to create
cryptography far more secure than anything in the nonquantum realm.
The timeframe: It's here, albeit still in its infancy,
but being taken seriously by many parties as a defensive next step against the
potential fall of existing cryptography to quantum computing attacks. Europe
and China are racing to create satellites to relay messages via quantum
encryption, and quantum cryptography technology is already being consumerized
by a few intrepid folks.
3. Alternate storage technologies
The tech: Flash storage may be orders of magnitude faster
than spinning disks, but the need to create a technology orders of magnitude
faster than flash is already on the agenda. Several contenders are vying for
that crown. Among them: IBM's next-generation PCM (phase-change memory) that's
an exponential upgrade over conventional flash, and memristors, a long-theorized
and long-elusive technology also meant to provide a massive speed boost to
memory.
The timeframe: The first generation of PCM chips is here
now. Memristors, on the other hand, are only available as lab specimens, with a
commercial version still years off.
4. Alternate transistor technologies
The tech: The transistor lies at the heart of most every
piece of modern technology, but we're fast approaching the maximum density for
creating transistors out of silicon. Carbon nanotubes have been stumped as a
possible replacement material, along with molybdenite and indium gallium
arsenide. Other technologies like the vacuum-channel transistor are also in the
works.
The timeframe: Out of the bunch, carbon nanotube
transistors seem to stand the best chance of being brought to market soon.
They're based on a technology that's already well understood, and they're
within five years of being turned into a commercial product, according to IBM.
5. Silicon photonics
The tech: "Fiber optics on steroids" might not
be a bad description. Silicon optical devices and infrared light can be used in
lieu of copper and electrical impulses to move signals around at greater
speeds. And with silicon, optical components can be combined with conventional
electronic ones on the same chip -- to speed up interconnections on a board,
across a system bus, or even within a chip itself.
The timeframe: For networking, it's very close to
release. Intel has its own optical interconnect, MXC; Fujitsu has a similar
product coming down the pike. And big names like Facebook are turning an eye
toward the tech as a way to speed up their data centers. But for CPUs
themselves, it's still a lab toy.
6. Next-generation system memory
The tech: The long-awaited DDR4 is supposed to finally
hit the market later this year, but other system memory technology is in the
works. Micron's Hybrid Memory Cube technology, for instance, uses stacked
memory chips to provide what Micron claims is five times the throughput of DDR4
in one-third of the space and using one-fifth of the power.
The timeframe: Very soon now -- Hybrid Memory Cube tech
is set for use in Intel's "Knights Landing" chip set, due next year,
and Nvidia has a similar variety of memory (although of a different flavor)
coming for its Pascal GPU.
7. Memristors, silicon photonics, and The Machine
The tech: Hewlett-Packard calls it "the
Machine." A project currently under wraps in HP's labs, it's an ambitious
attempt to create a potentially revolutionary computing product by combining
silicon photonics and memristors. The machine -- or rather, Machine -- could
theoretically run orders of magnitude faster than existing systems.
The timeframe: Work on the Machine started about 18
months ago, but until an actual working prototype appears, the vapor is strong
in this one. According to BusinessWeek, the Machine "isn't on HP's
official road map," and could be delivered "as early as 2017,"
or take until the end of the decade. Bets are off as to whether someone else
puts the same innovations to work in a more immediately available incarnation.
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